Risk Assessment

At present around 13 millions ha of natural forest are lost annually, mainly in the tropics, resulting in the emission of 5.8 GtCO2e annually. If forestry and land-use activities are to contribute to, rather than slow, efforts at averting dangerous climate change this rate needs to at least halve by 2020.

A series of international and national measures, collectively known as REDD+, are now being undertaken with the aim of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation within the 2020 time frame. Key outcomes targeted by REDD+ include:-

  • Widespread introduction of sustainable forest management
  • Scaling up of afforestation and reforestation activity
  • Improved management of existing protected areas
  • The extension of the protected area network
  • Introduction of private ‘conservation’ concessions

REDD+ is expected to cost somewhere $17-33bn annually. With public funds already strained, governments have set out to attract a significant proportion of these funds from private sources.

Two key aspects of REDD+ materially impact the commercial attractiveness of tropical forestry and land use: (a) improved forest governance and land management e.g. monitoring, enforcement, tenure reform implies reduced risk and (b) introduction of market-based incentives for sustainable management e.g. independently certified sustainable products and forest based ecosystem services potentially increases returns.

EnviroMarket works with private and development finance institutions to (a) enhance understanding of sector business models, and (b) improve access to good quality data and/or benchmarks for initial evaluation and ongoing appraisal.

Coverage can include:-

  • Physical conditions
  • Commercial conditions
  • Governance and governance reform
  • Social and civil society engagement
  • Current and potential forest-relevant FDI
  • Local and regional politics